It took almost a week, but the Democratic Party officially declared Pete Buttigieg the winner of the Iowa caucuses, awarding the Mayor of South Bend 13 delegates for the National Convention in July. But while Buttigieg has made a big jump up the oddsboard heading into the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, he’s the just third betting choice to win the nomination for the 2020 general election, trailing favorite Bernie Sanders and Michael Bloomberg.
After finishing a nose behind Buttigieg in Iowa – garnering 26.1% of state delegate equivalents to Buttigieg’s 26.2% and being awarded 12 delegates – Sanders remains the betting favorite to win the bid to run against Donald Trump in November’s presidential election. His 3/2 odds are unchanged since pre-Iowa, per a perusal of consensus numbers around the offshore betting market (as a reminder, betting on elections is not permitted in any legal U.S. markets).
The junior Vermont Senator is a massive favorite to win New Hampshire, listed at a consensus price of -400 (bet $400 to win $100).
While Buttigieg saw his odds for the Democratic nomination shorten to 11/2 from 25/1, Bloomberg also benefitted from the upset in Iowa. The businessman and former Mayor of New York is now 7/2 to give the party’s acceptance speech at July’s convention in Milwaukee.
Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, meanwhile, dropped significantly down the futures board and are priced as longshots in New Hampshire.
Another beneficiary of the vote-reporting disaster in Iowa? Trump. Also bolstered last week by his acquittal from impeachment charges and his all-time high approval rating of 49%, the incumbent is now -175 to win a second term in the White House.
Odds to win 2020 Democratic nomination
pre-Iowa numbers in parentheses
Bernie Sanders 3/2 (unchanged)
Michael Bloomberg 7/2 (5/1)
Pete Buttigieg (11/2) 25/1
Joe Biden 7/1 (2/1)
Elizabeth Warren 15/1 (12/1)
Hillary Clinton 22/1 (16/1)
Amy Klobuchar 35/1 (40/1)
Andrew Yang 75/1 (30/1)
Tulsi Gabbard 150/1 (100/1)
Tom Steyer 200/1 (100/1)
Odds to win 2020 New Hampshire primary
Bernie Sanders -400
Pete Buttigieg 2/1
Elizabeth Warren 20/1
Joe Biden 20/1
Amy Klobuchar 80/1
Andrew Yang 100/1
Tulsi Gabbard 100/1
Tom Steyer 100/1