2020 NFL Draft odds, rumors and mock: Betting market helps project first round

Tua Tagovailoa (AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)
Tua Tagovailoa (AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)
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The NFL Draft is a vulnerable betting market for sportsbooks, but amid insider knowledge and infinite rumors, betting lines are becoming sharper as Thursday’s first round approaches.

With bettors craving action in today’s sports-starved world, books are offering bountiful wagering options and expecting more handle than ever in the history of the Draft, which will be held virtually this year due social-distancing guidelines.

Below is a mock draft based on numbers from the betting market, current as of Tuesday. Of course, trades and upsets are expected, so consider this one of many resources available to help inform your bets.

2020 NFL mock draft based on betting odds

1. Cincinnati Bengals – Joe Burrow, QB, LSU

Latest odds and rumors: Burrow to the Bengals is a forgone conclusion, with odds as short as -100000 (bet $100,000 to win $100).

2. Washington Redskins – Chase Young, DE, Ohio State

Latest odds and rumors: The first two picks in the 2020 Draft should have little drama, with Young listed at -3000 to go second overall.

3. Detroit Lions – Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State

Latest odds and rumors: There’s a lot of unknowns over the next four picks, as Lions general manager Bob Quinn has told reporters the team has had talks about trading the No. 3 pick.

The majority of books (dealing odds as short as -300) link Okudah to the Lions after the team allowed 4,551 passing yards last season, the most by any defense since 2015. While the “No” is favored at Circa (-150) for the first three picks in exact order being Burrow, Young and Okudah, the book lists cornerback or safety as a -140 favorite for the Lions’ first pick. Sportsbooks offering varying prices on similar markets presents opportunity for bettors.

4. New York Giants – Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama

Latest odds and rumors: The Giants are expected to take an offensive lineman with their first pick. General manager Dave Gettleman said just as much last week, and their odds to take a lineman are as short as -400 at FanDuel.

Which lineman, though? It’s a deep draft for the Hog Mollies, and Gettleman could trade back for the first time in his career. Last week, Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs was the favorite to be the first lineman taken, but now the honor belongs to Wills at -175.

5. Miami Dolphins – Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama

Latest odds and rumors: It’s no secret Miami is in the market for a quarterback. Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa are the top options after Burrow, and the market is struggling to decipher what teams are going to select the gunslingers. At the beginning of April, Tagovailoa to Miami was the favorite, but injury concerns gave Herbert-to-Miami the momentum last week. But as of Tuesday, Tagovailoa was -148 at FanDuel to be drafted ahead of Herbert (+116).

6. Los Angeles Chargers – Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon

Latest odds and rumors: Herbert is -140 at William Hill to be the third QB selected, and the Chargers are -450 at Circa to select a quarterback with their first pick. On Monday, a Pro Football Network source close to Dolphins owner Stephen Ross said he is “talking as though Justin Herbert is not in the team’s plans with the fifth overall pick.” The Chargers will gladly take Herbert in the post-Philip Rivers era.

7. Carolina Panthers – Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson

Latest odds and rumors: Simmons to Panthers is a +200 favorite at William Hill, and NBC’s Peter King reports the Panthers “love” Simmons, who is as short as -9000 to be the first linebacker selected in the Draft. With Luke Kuechly retired, Simmons to Carolina makes a lot of sense, but so does Auburn DT Derrick Brown if Simmons is off the board.

8. Arizona Cardinals – Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa

Latest odds and rumors: An offensive lineman being selected by the Cardinals is -290 at Circa, and Wirfs is the highest-rated lineman on the board behind Wills. Wirfs is -400 at DraftKings to be taken in the top 10 with a over/under draft position of 8.5.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars – Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn

Latest odds and rumors: After losing the majority of their defensive stars over recent seasons, the Jaguars are -140 favorites at Circa and -165 at Caesars to address that need with their first pick. Brown has an over/under draft position of 8.5 at several sportsbooks and is as short as -700 to be a top-10 pick on Thursday.

10. Cleveland Browns – Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia

Latest odds and rumors: Rounding out the top 10 is the Browns, who have been trying to trade down — so this pick could change on draft day. The Browns are -490 at Circa to select an offensive lineman, and the betting market thinks it’s between Thomas and Louisville’s Mekhi Becton, who are both chalk to be drafted inside the top 10 at FanDuel.

11. New York Jets – Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville

Latest odds and rumors: Becton set the all-time 40-yard dash record for a player over 350 pounds but has also had a drug test flagged this month. While the Jets’ biggest need, according to ESPN.com, is wide receiver, “No” is a -145 favorite at Circa for New York taking a wide out first in a draft loaded with WR talent. FanDuel lists offensive lineman as a -140 favorite to be the Jets’ first pick.

12. Las Vegas Raiders – CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma

Latest odds and rumors: Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy and Lamb are +235 co-favorites at Circa to be selected by the Raiders. Recent rumors have us leaning towards Lamb, as King reported Monday that Raiders GM Mike Mayock “loves him (and) thinks he’s the most complete receiver in the draft.” There is also a report from Woody Paige that the Broncos could be looking to trade up for Jeudy, the +105 favorite at Caesars to be the first WR taken.

13. San Francisco 49ers (from Indianapolis) – Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama

Latest odds and rumors: The 49ers are “fielding calls on both their first-round picks, No. 13 and No. 31 overall, and are open to dealing either or both picks,” sources have told ESPN. The Niners’ biggest need is wide receiver, and Circa has installed the position as a -145 favorite to be their first pick. Alabama WR Henry Ruggs, who has a draft position over/under of 13.5, is in play if Lamb and Jeudy are off the board and San Francisco keeps this pick.

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Austin Jackson, OT, USC

Latest odds and rumors: The Bucs are -380 at FanDuel to select an offensive player and -290 at Circa to select an offensive lineman to protect Tom Brady. The top-four lineman should be off the board, but one figures to remain on the board if the Browns trade down. If Cleveland goes lineman with the 10th overall pick, the next-best available at the position, per the betting market, is Jackson with an over/under draft position of 25.5. That makes this pick seems like a stretch. The best available talent at No. 14, per the market, is Florida cornerback C.J. Henderson (over/under draft position of 12.5).

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15. Denver Broncos – Henry Ruggs, WR, Alabama

Latest odds and rumors: If John Elway can’t make Jeudy work, his teammate Ruggs will suffice. Circa has -210 odds that the Broncos will take a WR first, and Ruggs’ 13.5 over/under draft position creates a good fit. Ruggs is also the +250 favorite at DraftKings to be selected by Denver.

“We do need a wideout. The good thing is it’s a deep class. We’ll see how it falls,” Elway said on Monday, via Mike Klis of KUSA.

16. Atlanta Falcons – C.J. Henderson, CB, Florida

Latest odds and rumors: Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff wants to trade up for one of the two top corners in the draft, per Peter King. Per how this mock draft is shaping up, it won’t be much of a reach for Henderson, who comes with an over/under draft position of 13.5. The Falcons need an immediate starter after releasing corner Desmond Trufant.

17. Dallas Cowboys – Xavier McKinney, safety, Alabama

Latest odds and rumors: According to ESPN, the Cowboys’ biggest need is safety, and McKinney is a -305 favorite at DraftKings to be the first safety taken in the draft. But McKinney also comes with an over/under draft position of 24.5, so this could be a stretch. Dallas is -300 to take a defensive player, and any of the next three picks could also be in play.

18. Miami Dolphins (from Pittsburgh) – K’Lavon Chaisson, DE, LSU

Latest odds and rumors: This mock draft starts to get tricky when teams are making their second first-round pick as the Dolphins are here at No. 18. There are limited markets on which position a team will select with its second pick, but Chaisson has an over/under draft position of 16.5 or 17.5 at most shops. Miami ranked last in the NFL in sacks last season, and Chaisson is the second-best edge rusher in this draft class.

19. Las Vegas Raiders (from Chicago) – A.J. Terrell, CB, Clemson

Latest odds and rumors: Again, we are kind of on our own with this pick, but the betting market clearly has Terrell as the third-best corner in the Draft behind Henderson and Okudah. Terrell has an over/under draft position of 19.5, and with Gareon Conley now on the Texans roster and the Raiders-Clemson pipeline alive and well, Terrell is a solid fit in Vegas.

20. Jacksonville Jaguars (from LAR) – Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma

Latest odds and rumors: The Jags defensive line need was addressed with Brown, but other needs including LB and WR remain. Enter Murray, who an ESPN Analytics model gives a 69% chance to become a Pro Bowl-caliber player, the third best among all players in the draft class. Murray’s over/under draft position is 21.5.

21. Philadelphia Eagles – Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU

Latest odds and rumors: Jefferson could go to the Jags a pick prior, but he’s the +155 favorite at FanDuel to be selected by the Eagles at pick No. 21 ahead of Denzel Mims (+500). The Athletic says it’s receiver or bust in this scenario, and of the 20 mock drafts analyzed by the Eagles.com media team, 15 pegged a wide receiver to the Eagles.

22. Minnesota Vikings (from Buffalo) – Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU

Latest odds and rumors: The Vikings drafting a defensive player with their first pick is a -145 favorite at Circa, which might surprise some since Stefon Diggs is gone and Kirk Cousins needs weapons. But the WR class is deep, and there is a more glaring need at corner with Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander gone and Xavier Rhodes rated as one of the worst corners in the league last season. Fulton should fix the ratings in a hurry, considering he is rated by Pro Football Focus as the 12th-best player in the draft. Fulton has an over/under draft position of 25.5, but is the best-available corner per DraftKings’ cornerback odds.

23. New England Patriots – Patrick Queen, LB, LSU

Latest odds and rumors: Utah State QB Jordan Love’s draft stock is quickly sliding with OVER 19.5 juiced up to -200. The Patriots do need a QB, but we expect Bill Belichick to select the best available talent remaining in the draft and address a need at linebacker after losing Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins and Elandon Roberts in free agency. From a betting market perspective, that player is Queen, who has an over/under draft position of 24.5 with the UNDER juiced to -125.

24. New Orleans Saints – Jordan Love, QB, Utah State

Latest odds and rumors: One NFC executive reportedly called Jordan Love “green,” but a year or two on the sideline behind Drew Brees under Sean Payton’s tutelage could fix his decision-making flaws. The Saints don’t have any glaring needs on their roster, so building depth will be their goal of this draft. Love is -500 to be a first-round pick, and the Saints and Colts are co-favorites at +300 to select him.

25. Minnesota Vikings – Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor

Latest odds and rumors: Total WRs taken in the first round is either heavily juiced to the UNDER at 6.5 or to the OVER at 5.5. In other words, the market expects six. We have taken four thus far, and the wide receiver with the fifth shortest odds to be selected in the first round is 6-foot-3, 210-pound Mims at -150.

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26. Miami Dolphins (from Houston) – D’Andre Swift, RB, Georgia

Latest odds and rumors: Total running backs taken in the first round is just 0.5 with the OVER juiced to -180. Swift is the -175 favorite to be the first running back selected. Where he goes in the first round is tough to gauge, but the Dolphins averaged just 72.2 yards per game on the ground last season, worst in the league.

27. Seattle Seahawks – Yetur Gross-Matos, DE, Penn State

Latest odds and rumors: Seahawks GM John Schneider has traded down in the first round eight straight years and could be active again at No. 27. But if he keeps the pick, the correct fit is Gross-Matos. Seattle, who is -165 at Circa to take a defensive player with its first pick, was 30th in adjusted sack rate last season and is still without a new deal for Jadeveon Clowney. Gross-Matos comes with an over/under draft position of 26.5.

28. Baltimore Ravens – Cesar Ruiz, C, Michigan

Latest odds and rumors: The Athletic says Ruiz is the best bet for the Ravens to step in from Day 1 and fill a major need on the interior offensive line. Most sportsbooks have Baltimore taking a defensive player, but the prospect with the lowest over/under draft position left on the board (28.5) and co-shortest odds to be a first-rounder (-200) is Ruiz.

29. Tennessee Titans – A.J. Epenesa, DE, Iowa

Latest odds and rumors: The Titans are -130 at Circa to select a defensive player with their first pick, and ESPN.com says the Titans have a need on the defensive line. Epenesa is -200 to be a first-round pick at DraftKings, with an over/under draft position of 29.5 at William Hill.

30. Green Bay Packers – Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson

Latest odds and rumors: Receiver No. 6 in the first round goes to Green Bay with pick No. 30. The Packers are -175 at Circa to take a WR with their first pick, and the lowest over/under draft position is Higgins at 31.5 with MGM.

31. San Francisco 49ers – Josh Jones, OT, Houston

Latest odds and rumors: Jones started 45 games at left tackle for the Cougars and comes with an over/under draft position as low as 25.5 in some spots. With left tackle Joe Staley nearing the end of his career, the Niners secure the blind side future for Jimmy Garoppolo.

32. Kansas City Chiefs – Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama

Latest odds and rumors: The reigning champions are -145 at Circa to select a defensive player with their first pick. LSU safety Grant Delpit has been popularly mocked here, but the total for first-round safeties is 1.5 with the UNDER juiced heavily. The total for cornerbacks selected in the first round is 4.5 with the OVER juiced. Diggs, who is -200 to be a first-round pick, would cash that ticket.

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