Boston College-Notre Dame point spread seesaws ahead of Saturday’s Holy War

Notre Dame wide receiver Braden Lenzy, November 2019
Notre Dame wide receiver Braden Lenzy (AP Photo Darron Cummings)
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The betting line moved early in Notre Dame’s direction for Saturday’s home game against Boston College, before mid-week wagering saw some buy-back on the underdog Eagles. The only two Catholic schools in FBS clash at Notre Dame Stadium for the first time since 2011.

Boston College at No. 16 Notre Dame (-19, 63.5)

Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. ET / 1:30 p.m. CT (NBC)

Line movement: Oddsmakers at Circa Sports opened the Irish 18-point favorites on Sunday, the line peaking at -20.5 before retreating back to -19.

The total opened 63.5 and has ranged between 62.5 and 64 in early wagering.

Eagles scoring woes against ranked opponents

Boston College (5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS) is one win shy of its sixth bowl appearance behind seven-year coach Steve Addazio, a former special teams and tight ends mentor for the Irish (1999-2001). But an upset may have to wait until the regular-season finale at Pitt, considering Addazio’s record against elite programs.

Addazio has just one win over a ranked opponent in 17 attempts, shocking then-No. 9 USC 37-31 at Alumni Stadium as 17-point pups in 2014. When catching 17.5-plus points on the oddsboard against ranked teams, the Eagles are winless and 3-5 ATS, scoring more than two touchdowns just once. They have put up exactly seven points in each of their last five contests under these market conditions.

Points have also been tough to come by in recent matchups against the Irish. Since 2007, BC has posted 20 points or fewer in seven games, averaging 14.6 overall. The UNDER has cashed in all but one.

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Red-hot Irish familiar with well-rested opponents

Notre Dame (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) is playing light years above market expectations, posting ATS margins of victory of 23 and 22 the last two weeks in a 38-7 win over Duke (+8) and a 52-20 rout of Navy (+10). It is just the second time in the last four decades the Irish have topped spreads by 20-plus points in consecutive weeks. Bettors must approach Notre Dame cautiously with reversion to the mean likely.

Four of the five teams Notre Dame will have faced to close its 2019 regular season come off a bye week, Boston College among them. Under Kelly, Notre Dame has faced 10 opponents off a bye in South Bend when the Irish are on normal rest, going just 3-7 ATS. The Irish fail to cover a -13.2 average spread by 2.8 margin. In seven contests laying more than a touchdown, the UNDER has hit in all but one, the program outscoring visitors by a 35.0 to 16.6 average score line.

Notable trends

Boston College is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 road games.

The UNDER is 33-16-2 in Boston College’s last 51 away games against a team with a winning record.

The UNDER is 20-7 in Notre Dame’s last 27 games after lighting up the scoreboard for 40 points in its prior outing.

More: College football betting

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