Betting market moves in favor of Oklahoma, Texas ahead of key Saturday Big 12 matchups

Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley and Iowa State's Matt Campbell
Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley and Iowa State's Matt Campbell (AP Photo/Matthew Putney)
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A pair of home favorites highlight Saturday’s Big 12 college football betting board. Texas has been bet up to touchdown chalk ahead of its important mid-afternoon matchup against surging No. 16 Kansas State, while Oklahoma is -14.5 against Iowa State in a battle between two of the nation’s premier young coaches.

Here are odds, betting analysis and a pick for two of Saturday’s most intriguing college matchups.

MORE: Saturday Big Ten betting primer

No. 16 Kansas State at Texas (-7, 57.5)

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET/2:30 p.m. CT (ESPN)
Opening spread/total at Circa Sports: Texas -5/58.5
Betting records: Kansas State 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS; Texas 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS

Analysis: Kansas State has caught the attention of the betting public, going 8-2 against the spread in its last 10 games dating back to last year. After pulling off one of the biggest upsets of the season against Oklahoma two weeks ago – winning outright as 23.5-point dogs – the Wildcats avoided a letdown in their next game against in-state rival Kansas, beating the Jayhawks 38-10 and cashing as 4.5-point chalk.

Kansas State continues to improve each week under first-year coach Chris Klieman. Dual-threat QB Skylar Thompson has been fantastic over the past three games, throwing zero interceptions and averaging 7.7 yards per attempt. He also runs the ball efficiently, rushing for eight touchdowns over that span.

Kansas State has outperformed market expectations in this series over the past several years, going 12-3 ATS in its last 15 meetings against the Longhorns. The Wildcats have also exceeded expectations as an underdog, going 43-18 ATS the last 61 times they’ve caught points.

Despite going 2-5 ATS in its last seven games against Big 12 opponents, Texas money showed after the line opened -5, driving Saturday’s spread up to a full touchdown. The move can be partially attributed to the fact that the Longhorns are coming off their second bye week of the regular season. They are also getting a few key players back from injury, including reigning all-conference safety Caden Sterns.

The total has gone UNDER in five of the last six matchups between these programs. UNDER bettors have cashed in four of Kansas State’s last five games, but OVER bettors have got the money in six of the Longhorns’ last eight.

Betting guides: Alabama vs. LSU | Notre Dame vs. Duke

Iowa State at No. 9 Oklahoma (-14.5, 67.5)

Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET/7 p.m. CT (FOX)
Opening spread/total at Circa Sports: Oklahoma -13.5/63.5
Betting records: Iowa State 5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS; Oklahoma 7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS

Analysis: The line on this game has moved from a -13 opener over the two-TD fence to -14.5, as many bettors expect the Sooners to run up the score to enhance their College Football Playoff resume.

Both teams enter this game off a bye week, and both feature two of the nation’s most promising young coaches in Lincoln Riley and Matt Campbell.

The Sooners have won 15 of the past 16 matchups between these programs, but the Cyclones are 3-0 ATS in their three meetings against the Sooners under Campbell, covering the spread by an average of 18 points. Iowa State has the talent and experience to hang tight in this game, and the Cyclones will be the best defense the Sooners have faced all year.

Oklahoma has yet to face dual-threat Iowa State QB Brock Purdy, who took the reigns for the Cyclones two weeks after last year’s 37-27 Sooner win in Ames (Iowa State covered the 18.5-point spread). Look for Campbell to have a game plan that creatively utilizes his QB in different ways, including multiple runs into the Oklahoma secondary.

The total has gone OVER in six of the last seven matchups between these two teams, and OVER bettors have cashed in all of Oklahoma’s last six contests. But the Cyclones have been kind to UNDER bettors, particularly on the road, where the Cyclones are on an 11-2 run to the UNDER.

Iowa State is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games against Big 12 competition. The Cyclones were the apple of the betting market’s eye a few short weeks ago, winning and covering three straight before losing outright at home to Oklahoma State heading into the bye. Expect Campbell to go toe-to-toe with Riley in Norman on Saturday and for the Cyclones to cover the number against the Sooners.

Pick: Iowa State at +14.5 or better

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