Saturday college basketball odds, analysis and picks: Indiana a short home favorite against Purdue

Indiana's Justin Smith vs. Princeton, November 2019
Indiana's Justin Smith (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)
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Indiana is just 3-9 against the spread in its last 12 games, but it will look to build on a strong 12-2 straight-up home record as a 3-point favorite against Purdue at Assembly Hall on Saturday afternoon.

The visiting Boilermakers have been dreadful away from home this season, covering the spread just once in seven road games and failing to cash tickets for point spread backers in each of their last five.

A loaded Saturday of wall-to-wall college basketball features 21 top-25 teams in action, and the betting board is ripe for the picking for bettors willing to roll up their sleeves and do some work.

Here are odds, analysis, trends and picks for Saturday’s marquee college hoops action, including all four Big Ten matchups.

Also read: Updated NCAA Tournament odds, top 25 rankings

Purdue at Indiana (-3, 130)

Tip-off: 2 p.m. ET/1 p.m. CT (ESPN)
Betting records: Purdue 13-10 SU, 10-12-1 ATS; Indiana 15-7 SU, 10-12 ATS
KenPom prediction: Indiana 64-63

Purdue is coming off a 104-68 shellacking of No. 17 Iowa in West Lafayette on Wednesday in an outlier offensive game that saw the Boilermakers score 61 first-half points, more than their average total output on the road this season (59 ppg).

The Boilermakers are 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings between these two programs. The total has gone UNDER in four of the last five of those matchups, my numbers lean to another UNDER in this one. UNDER bettors have cashed in nine of Indiana’s last 11 contests.

No. 7 Duke (-7.5, 150) at North Carolina

Tip-off: 6 p.m. ET/5 p.m. CT (ESPN)
Betting records: Duke 19-3 SU, 12-10 ATS; North Carolina 10-12 SU, 8-14 ATS
KenPom prediction: Duke 79-68
Betting trend to note: UNC is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games

This is North Carolina’s first game as a road underdog since 2015. The Tar Heels have been a train wreck this year, but they are 4-1 ATS in their last five, which can be partially attributed to having freshman guard Cole Anthony back in the mix after sitting out several weeks with a knee injury.

With the 2019-20 season already a lost one for the Tar Heels, Saturday’s matchup against their archrival is their biggest game of the year. Expect coach Roy Williams’ squad to show up with a maximum effort on Saturday to keep this game close.

UNDER bettors have cashed in the last six Duke-UNC matchups.

Nebraska at No. 17 Iowa (-14.5, 157.5)

Tip-off: 6 p.m. ET/5 p.m. CT (BTN)
Betting records: Nebraska 7-15 SU, 11-11 ATS; Iowa 16-7 SU, 13-7-3 ATS
KenPom prediction: Iowa 87-72

The Hawkeyes look to bounce back from Wednesday’s 104-68 drubbing at Purdue. This is also a revenge spot for coach Fran McCaffrey’s team, who lost to the Cornhuskers 76-70 on Jan. 7 as an 8-point road favorite. The Hawkeyes have won 10 straight at home.

Minnesota at No. 22 Penn State (-7, 138.5)

Tip-off: 4 p.m. ET/3 p.m. CT (BTN)
Betting records: Minnesota 12-10 SU, 13-9 ATS; Penn State 17-5 SU, 13-8-1 ATS
KenPom prediction: Penn State 73-67

The Nittany Lions have covered the spread in five straight games. The total has gone UNDER in Minnesota’s last five contests and in four of Penn State’s last five.

MORE: Five Saturday situational spots to consider

No. 12 Seton Hall at No. 10 Villanova (-3.5, 140.5)

Tip-off: 2:30 p.m. ET/1:30 p.m. CT (FOX)
Betting records: Seton Hall 17-5 SU, 15-7 ATS; Villanova 17-5 SU, 10-10-2 ATS
KenPom prediction: Villanova 71-69

Winners in 11 of its last 12 overall, Seton Hall hasn’t left Villanova with a victory in 16 straight tries. The total has gone OVER in the Pirates’ last five road games.

No. 16 Michigan State (-2, 142.5) at Michigan

Tip-off: Noon ET/11 a.m. CT (FOX)
Betting records: Michigan State 16-7 SU, 11-12 ATS; Michigan 13-9 SU, 10-11-1 ATS
KenPom prediction: Michigan State 72-71

After losing two straight contests, Michigan State has covered the spread over 62% of the time in its third game. The Spartans will need to win by more than a bucket in order to get that done in Ann Arbor on Saturday against a Wolverines team that has been nothing short of a disappointment since opening the season with a string of strong non-conference wins.

No. 18 LSU at No. 11 Auburn (-5, 154)

Tip-off: Noon ET/11 a.m. CT (ESPN)
Betting records: LSU 17-5 SU, 10-11-1 ATS; Auburn 20-2 SU, 11-11 ATS
KenPom prediction: Auburn 79-75

LSU enters this game off a perplexing 99-90 loss against lowly Vanderbilt on Wednesday. It will look to get back on track Saturday against an Auburn team poised for negative regression, ranking second in KenPom’s “Luck” ratings.

At 154, this total is a tick too high in a game where LSU should bring an added level of defensive intensity. Auburn’s opponents average 17.4 seconds per possession this season, the 173rd fastest in the nation.

Pick: Half unit on UNDER 154

Saturday’s 10 UNDER value plays

Towson/Drexel UNDER 138
Navy/Colgate UNDER 133.5
Lehigh/Lafayette UNDER 145.5
Elon/College of Charleston UNDER 138
Sam Houston State/Nicholls State UNDER 143
Nebraska Omaha/South Dakota State UNDER 151
Chattanooga/Wofford UNDER 138
Oakland/Wright State UNDER 145
Detroit/Northern Kentucky UNDER 144
Missouri State/Southern Illinois UNDER 126.5

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