Monday college basketball odds, trends and picks: Duke lays points to Florida State in critical ACC clash

Tre Jones, Duke basketball, February 2020
Duke guard Tre Jones drives to the basket (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)
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Oddsmakers open No. 7 Duke an 8.5-point favorite over No. 8 Florida State at Cameron Indoor on Monday night, a pivotal top-10 clash with potential 2020 regular-season ACC championship implications. The Blue Devils, fresh off an emotional overtime win at North Carolina, will look to ride momentum against a Seminoles squad adept at knocking off elite programs.

The light national men’s college hoop schedule also sees a pair of intriguing Big 12 contests in the nightcap. Top-ranked Baylor is laying 6.5 points at Texas, while reeling TCU is a rare double-digit underdog at Texas Tech.

NCAA Tournament odds: Baylor cements top spot

Odds, betting analysis, and situational trends for each matchup here:

No. 8 Florida State at No. 7 Duke (-8.5, 148.5)

Tip: 7 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. CT (ESPN)

Betting scoop: No. 7 Duke (20-3 straight up, 12-11 against the spread) rallied from 13 down to win a 98-96 overtime thriller at longtime rival North Carolina on Saturday night, the program’s first win in Chapel Hill since 2016. The Blue Devils, favored by 7.5 points, failed to cover the spread for the sixth time in their last nine games.

A regressing defense factors into Duke’s recent poor point-spread form. UNC, which hit 52% from the floor in defeat, is the fifth Blue Devils opponent in their last seven contests to surpass its projected team total. When Duke allows more than 63 points this season, they are 3-8 ATS.

The OVER has also cashed in eight of the last nine Blue Devils games.

No program is better competing against D1 elites over the last couple of seasons than Florida State (20-3 SU, 11-12 ATS). Since 2016, the Seminoles are 15-5-1 ATS (12-9 SU) versus top-10 foes. This includes 1-4 SU and 4-1 ATS records in five clashes against Duke.

This is the 10th time in the last calendar year the Seminoles will tip off betting underdogs. They are 5-4 SU and ATS in the previous nine, outshooting opponents 42.2% to 41.8% from the floor. They have gone off with a spread of 8 points or more once in this stretch, stunning eventual national champion Virginia 69-59 catching 8.5 points in last year’s ACC tournament.

The UNDER is 12-6-1 in the last 19 Seminoles-Blue Devils matchups, and a perfect 5-0 when Duke goes off a single-digit favorite at Cameron Indoor. Look for both sides to play cautiously and defense-first, as the loser will sink two games back of Louisville for top spot in the ACC standings.

Pick: UNDER 148.5

No. 1 Baylor (-6.5, 128) at Texas

Tip: 9 p.m. ET / 8 p.m. CT (ESPN)

Betting scoop: Baylor (21-1 SU, 14-8 ATS) opens a 6.5-point road favorite at Texas (14-9 SU, 9-14 ATS) in a spot that tends to see high-scoring games. Since 2010, the OVER is 32-17-1 (65.5%) when the Bears tip off on the road against unranked conference rivals. Eight of the last nine have surpassed the number in this situation, including a 73-67 win at Kansas State (124 total) last Monday.

The Longhorns might be headed for a market correction after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They went 6-13 ATS with a -4.2 margin prior to the mini run.

Head coach Shaka Smart’s men will need a strong defensive effort to stay within the number against the Bears given the former’s recent offensive struggles facing similar market conditions. In the last calendar year, Texas is averaging 60.9 points on 39.5% from the field in 12 prior conference clashes catching points on oddsboards.

TCU at Texas Tech (-11, 127.5)

Tip: 9 p.m. ET / 8 p.m. CT (ESPN2)

Betting scoop: TCU (13-10 SU, 8-15 ATS) has dropped seven of its last eight games SU and ATS, including the last five in a row. All have been played in the last calendar month, the Horned Frogs averaging 56.9 points on 38.8% shooting in this span.

The 11-point opening spread is just the fifth time TCU is catching double digits on the oddsboard under head coach Scott Dixon.

Texas Tech (15-8 SU, 11-12 ATS) underperforms against low-scoring teams during head coach Chris Beard’s tenure. The Red Raiders have covered just one-third of all point spreads against opponents averaging fewer than 71.5 points for the season. Their record is 4-15 ATS in this situation since the start of last season. TCU posts 66.7 points per game and ranks 151st in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings (104.4 points per 100 possessions). Kansas State is the only Big 12 program worst at scoring (No. 180).

This story was compiled with the help of queries performed at SportsDatabase.

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