Inflated QB projections present player prop value in Chargers-Raiders TNF clash

Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders, November 2019
Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) scrambles (AP Photo/D. Ross Cameron)
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Projected quarterback stats are a tad optimistic for Philip Rivers and Derek Carr ahead of the Chargers-Raiders clash on Thursday, presenting valuable fade opportunities in the player prop market.

Chargers RB Melvin Gordon, on the other hand, is surging, primed to exceed expectations and reward backers.

Below is a trio of player prop bets offered at the Westgate LV SuperBook worth considering for the Week 10 AFC West clash:

Total Rushing Yards By: Melvin GORDON (LAC)

Pick: OVER 60.5 (-110)

Chargers RB Melvin Gordon’s production is surging, as he appears to be truly game fit after missing the exhibition period and first four games of the regular season over a contract dispute. Gordon rumbled for 80 yards on 20 carries in a 26-11 win over the Packers last week, both figures season-highs. He’s also found the end zone in three straight games.

Despite an above-average Raiders run defense, bettors should expect another bell-cow effort Thursday night. New offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, who made his debut in the Green Bay win, got 442 total yards out of the unit with a healthy blend of run and pass. The Chargers threw 28 times, while handing it off 38 overall.

One can argue Gordon’s breakout reenergized the unit, while causing havoc for the opposing defense. Steichen is aware of this and will favor the Chargers No. 1 playmaker early and often.

TNF betting preview: Chargers vs. Raiders

Total Touchdown Passes By: Derek CARR (OAK)

Pick: UNDER 1.5 (+120)

Derek Carr is on fire, eclipsing a 100 passer rating three games in a row, surprisingly a career-first. The three-time Pro Bowler has thrown for seven touchdowns to one interception in this stretch. Carr, in fact, has tossed multiple touchdowns in five of his last six games. So, why bet against a repeat performance? Take into account divisional experience, regression, and L.A.’s defensive confidence.

First, all good things must end. Reversion to the mean is imminent, particularly considering Carr’s passer rating streak.

Secondly, the Chargers defense is riding high after suffocating Aaron Rodgers and Co. last Sunday. The unit played the containment game in the big win, blitzing Rodgers once in 39 dropbacks.

Third, L.A. knows Carr inside and out. Look for much more pressure against the Raiders’ signal-caller than versus Rodgers, the former struggling under such a scheme throughout much of his career. Divisional opponents know blitzing is key to victory, limiting Carr’s end-zone threat. Since teaming up with head coach Jon Gruden, Carr has tossed multiple passing touchdowns once in eight prior AFC West matchups. He’s averaging 0.5 in two clashes against the Chargers.

Moreover, in 10 career starts against the Chargers, Carr has tossed a pair of scores in only three.

Super Bowl 54 odds: Ravens soar following Pats win

Total Completions By: Philip RIVERS (LAC)

Pick: UNDER 23.5 (-110)

In addition to Steichen committing to the run a bit more in his offensive coordinator debut last Sunday, the Raiders just don’t allow a ton of completions since Gruden came on board.

Part of this is attributed to the passing defense’s inefficiency. The unit allows 8.4 opponent yards per pass this season, ranking next to last in the NFL, so offenses are gaining more for less in terms of receptions.

In 24 games coached by Gruden, opponents have gained 24 completions or more only six times.

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