The Patriots have won seven in a row versus the Jets, but the latter tend to get the better of quarterback Tom Brady against the spread early in the season.
New York has covered the betting line in nine of the last 10 meetings occurring in the first half of the regular season. This includes topping a 17-point line in a 30-14 Week 3 defeat earlier in 2019.
Patriots (-9.5, 43.5) at Jets
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET / 7:15 p.m. CT (ESPN)
Line movement: Oddsmakers opened the Patriots (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) 10-point favorites, the line battling back and forth at the current number of 9.5 most of the week. The total has traded between 42 and 44 after a 42 initial offer.
Tom Brady will deal with a razor thin receiving corps Monday night with WR Josh Gordon (knee, ankle), TE Ryan Izzo (concussion), and Matt LaCosse (knee) all ruled out due to injuries. Questionable are WR Julian Edleman (chest) WR Phillip Dorsett (hamstring) WR Gunner Olszewski (hamstring).
Super Bowl odds: Mahomes injury fuels adjustments
One can bet the Canton-bound quarterback will still find a way to put up plenty of points against a lackluster Jets (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) defense yielding 24.6 points per game. Brady has posted 33 points or more in four of his last five road outings versus units allowing more than 23.5 per contest on the year. This includes 43 and 33 in victories at the Dolphins and Redskins in Weeks 2 and 5 respectively.
Jets hurting too, but better with Darnold
The Jets also post a lengthy injury report, notables including DL Henry Anderson (shoulder), OT Kelvin Beachum (ankle), and CB Nate Hairston (knee). Rookie Chuma Edoga is starting at RT and one should wager on New England head coach Bill Belichick going after the inexperienced lineman with complex stunts and mismatches.
The return of QB Sam Darnold, however, gives Jets backers hope they can compete against the undefeated Pats as evidence by his performance last week. The second-year pro threw for 338 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception on 23-of-32 passing in his return from mono, leading the team to a 24-22 upset win over the Cowboys as a touchdown underdog. In three games missed, the Jets mustered a single offensive touchdown.
Belichick praises, gashes Gase
Belichick heaped a ton of praise on Jets head coach Adam Gase after practice Thursday, saying he is good at “everything” when asked about his strengths heading into the clash.
“Game planning, play calling, strategy, use of personnel, use of plays. I mean, all the things that go into it. It’s not one thing.”
Gase, however, fared poorly in specific performance measures in three years in charge at Miami. Belichick’s offenses posted 31 points or more in five of six divisional matchups. The Dolphins averaged 20.5 overall. The Jets post 21.9 per game in 15 with Darnold under center.
The Jets are 5-10 SU and ATS with Darnold starting.
The UNDER has hit in seven of the last eight New England road AFC East clashes with Brady under center.
New England is 40-15-2 ATS in their last 57 games in October.