Thanks largely to Clemson, underdogs have covered the spread in six straight College Football National Championship games. Does the betting trend continue on Monday or does LSU cash tickets as 6-point home favorites?
Of those six underdogs to cash spread tickets in the National Championship, Clemson has been the team catching points in three, including two outright wins over Alabama at spreads similar to Monday’s game. Despite the trend, over 70% of tickets and money as of Friday’s writing are backing LSU’s dominant team.
Trends tend to be streaky, however. Favorites covered six straight title games before the dogs’ current run.
Since the 2000 season, underdogs are 12-7 ATS in the national title game with the OVER going 11-8.
When including the national semifinals, underdogs hold a slight 9-8 ATS advantage since the start of the College Football Playoff in the 2014-15 season, with the OVER also going 9-8.
Monday’s total doesn’t rival the Peach Bowl’s 75.0 (OVER cashed with LSU’s 63-28 win vs. Oklahoma), but at 69.5, it’s the second-highest number for a title game in the BCS/playoff era. At 72.5, Ohio State vs. Oregon in the 2014 season closed higher, and UNDER cashed in the Buckeyes’ 42-20 win.
Here’s a rundown of how favorites like LSU have fared in the national championship since the 2000 season.
Past national championship betting results
|Season||Score||Line||Fav ATS||Fav SU|
|2018||Clemson 44, Alabama 16||Bama -6||L||L|
|2017||Alabama 26, Georgia 23||Bama -3.5||L||W|
|2016||Clemson 35, Alabama 31||Bama -6.5||L||L|
|2015||Alabama 45, Clemson 40||Bama -6||L||W|
|2014||Ohio State 42, Oregon 20||Oregon -5.5||L||L|
|2013||Florida State 34, Auburn 31||FSU -12||L||W|
|2012||Alabama 42, Notre Dame 14||Bama -10||W||W|
|2011||Alabama 21, LSU 0||Bama -2.5||W||W|
|2010||Auburn 22, Oregon 19||Auburn -1||W||W|
|2009||Alabama 37, Texas 21||Bama -3.5||W||W|
|2008||Florida 24, Oklahoma 14||Florida -4||W||W|
|2007||LSU 38, Ohio State 24||LSU -3.5||W||W|
|2006||Florida 41, Ohio State 14||OSU -7||L||L|
|2005||Texas 41, USC 38||USC -7||L||L|
|2004||USC 55, Oklahoma 19||USC -1||W||W|
|2003||LSU 21, Oklahoma 14||Oklahoma -7||L||L|
|2002||Ohio State 31, Miami 24||Miami -11||L||L|
|2001||Miami 37, Nebraska 14||Miami -8.5||W||W|
|2000||Oklahoma 13, Florida State 2||FSU -10||L||L|
This story was compiled with the help of queries performed at SportsDatabase
Also read: 2020 Heisman odds