For the second time this season the 49ers are laying a key number against the Packers.
In November, the spread was 3, but this time around for Sunday’s NFC Championship game (6:40 p.m. ET/5:40 p.m. CT, FOX) San Francisco is giving a full touchdown.
The 7-point spread and total of 45 should create good two-way action on the game, but early wagering is siding with the home chalk with 61% of tickets and 67% money for San Francisco at FanDuel as of Sunday night. At MGM in Las Vegas, the sportsbook has already taken a $110,000 bet on the 49ers at -7, per Covers.
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Sharp bettors laid the points in Week 12 with the 49ers against the Packers in their first matchup of the season, a convincing 37-8 (UNDER 48) victory. San Fran led 23-0 at halftime, sacked Aaron Rodgers five times and held him to 104 passing yards. It was a strong pass rush that got the Niners to the NFC Championship as they sacked Kirk Cousins six times and held Minnesota to seven first downs in Saturday’s 27-10 win as a 7-point favorite.
The Packers’ biggest weakness is their ability to stop opposing rush defenses. They entered Sunday’s game against the Seahawks ranked No. 23 in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) for total rush defense and gave up another 110 yards in the 28-23 win. On the other side of the ball, San Francisco’s defense ranks second overall for total DVOA defense and is now even stronger with LB Kwon Alexander (pec), safety Jaquiski Tartt (rib) and DE Dee Ford (hamstring) back in the lineup.
One win away from the Super Bowl, the 49ers are +150 at the Westgate SuperBook to win it all, while Green Bay is a tempting 7/1. The Chiefs, who are 7.5-point favorites for Sunday’s AFC Championship game against the Titans, are the +140 title favorite.