NFL Week 10 late Sunday betting slate: Steelers rare home dogs with Rams in town

Steelers coach Mike Tomlin, 11-02-2019
Steelers coach Mike Tomlin (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)
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The Steelers are kicking off as home underdogs for just the 15th time in the Mike Tomlin era, while trends point to differing OVER/UNDER results in the Packers and Colts tilts in late Week 10 Sunday action.

Dolphins at Colts (-10.5, 44)

Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET / 3:05 p.m. CT (CBS)

What bettors need to know: The Colts’ (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) Brian Hoyer could make his first start at quarterback in over two years and 38th overall with Jacoby Brissett limited in practice due to a sprained medial collateral ligament in his left knee.

Editor’s note: Brissett was ruled out on Saturday, dropping consensus line to 10.5 and total to 43.5.

In stints with the Patriots, Browns, Texans and Bears, the 11-year veteran is 8-5 SU and 7-6 ATS as the betting favorite, leading offenses to a respectable 23.8 points per game. The 10.5-point line, however, is the longest ever behind a Hoyer-led outfit.

The UNDER has been the moneymaker under the above-mentioned conditions, cashing in nine of 12 with a push.

Super Bowl 54 odds: Ravens flying high up board

After an atrocious beginning to the 2019 campaign, in which the Dolphins (1-7 SU, 4-4 ATS) lost their first four games by a combined 137 points — failing to cover the spread in each — they have rebounded to top the number in four straight. This includes a 26-18 victory over the Jets as 3-point underdogs last week, their lone win. It was the first time the franchise scored more than 21 points in its last 11 games.

The following trend is working against the possibility of a repeat performance for Miami: The UNDER is 26-9 in the Dolphins’ last 35 games catching more than 9 points on the oddsboard, including 12 of the last 14. They average 16.0 points under these conditions.

The franchise, in fact, has posted more than three touchdowns once in consecutive games dating back to Week 16 of the 2016 campaign.

Rams (-3.5, 44) at Steelers

Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET / 3:25 p.m. CT (FOX)

What bettors need to know: CG Technology pegged this matchup a pick ‘em in advanced NFL lines in May.

The Steelers (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS) have covered the spread in five of their last six games, the defense holding opponents to 18.0 points per game.

Rams (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) QB Jared Goff is just 10-10 SU and 8-11-1 ATS as a starter with a betting line of 4 points or fewer.

Head coach Mike Tomlin is 7-7 SU and 8-3-3 ATS all-time catching points at Heinz Field. Toss out games against the Patriots and Ravens, and the Steelers improve to 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS under these market conditions.

Panthers at Packers (-5, 47)

Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET / 3:25 p.m. CT (FOX)

What bettors need to know: QB Kyle Allen appears to be a long-term commitment under center after the Panthers (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) placed Cam Newton on season-ending IR this week, potentially signaling an end to his tenure with the team.

Toss out a horror outing at San Francisco in Week 8, in which Allen tallied an abysmal 28.9 passer rating, and the second-year pro has played excellently. He has thrown for nine TDs, one INT and 1,133 yards on 97-of-154 passing in five other starts this season.

Keeping up with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) on their home turf might be Allen’s toughest challenge yet, particularly considering the conditions. Rodgers is 65-15 SU (81.2%) and 49-30-1 ATS (62.0%) all-time as the betting favorite at Lambeau Field when attempting at least 10 passes in a contest.

The better the opponent’s winning percentage, the more Rodgers shines in the betting market. Visitors sporting a .500 record or better cover just one-third of spreads (12-25 ATS), as opposed to a 16-20-1 ATS (45.4%) rate for losing teams.

The OVER is an eye-opening 19-3 (86.4%) when Rodgers squares off against an NFC South foe. His 7-15 ATS (31.8%) mark is his worst against any division.

Trends compiled with queries performed at SportsDatabase.

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