NFL Week 10 teaser candidates: Bills a worthy play vs. Browns in weekend two-teamers

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, November 2019
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen (AP Photo/James Kenney)
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Four NFL underdogs offer varying degrees of teaser value on the NFL Week 10 betting board. The Raiders, Bills, Lions and Jets are all catching less than a field goal, and three of these games feature low totals.

A two-team, six-point NFL teaser that crosses through the key numbers of 3 and 7 on both legs of the bet is often an advantageous avenue for bettors looking to scrape away value from the betting boards.

Many sportsbooks have guarded against this advantage by increasing the vigorish on such teasers, so one should be sure to shop around for the best possible number.

Here’s a refresher on teasers.

Only one of our teaser legs came through last week, as the Steelers beat the Colts outright in Pittsburgh. The Jaguars were unable to live up to their end of the bargain, getting trounced by the Texans 26-3 in London.

Entering Week 10, there are four teams — all underdogs — that fit our model of crossing through the key numbers of 3 and 7.

With that as our backdrop, here are your NFL Week 10 teaser candidates.

MORE: NFL Week 10 early betting lines

Raiders (+7.5) vs. Chargers

The arrow is pointing up on Oakland and Los Angeles ahead of Thursday night’s key AFC West matchup. Both teams enter Week 10 off important home victories, the Raiders taking care of Detroit, and the Chargers dismantling Green Bay as a 4.5-point underdog.

The Chargers are laying a point and a half on the road, almost identical to where my numbers rate this game. There is nothing wrong with teasing the home Raiders through the 3 and 7 and asking them to win or lose by a touchdown or less, but there are better options on the board.

Bills (+8.5) at Browns

Buffalo is an excellent teaser option this week and has standalone point spread value at +3 or better. As of this Wednesday publication, many shops have moved the number to 3, some with extra vigorish on the Bills.

In a game with a low total of 40, the value of each respective point will be magnified in Cleveland on Sunday. The Browns are in desperation mode, but the same could have been said about them last week in Denver, where they lost as 4-point favorites. Cleveland is an undisciplined team that leads the NFL with 75 total penalties.

According to Next Gen Stats, Mayfield has the lowest passer rating in the NFL when not under pressure. On Sunday he faces a Buffalo defense that is proficient at pressuring opposing quarterbacks.

Buffalo is 3-0 straight up on the road, and Cleveland is 0-3 SU at home this season. Asking the Bills to win or lose by less than a touchdown is a terrific option for the first leg of our teaser.

Also read: Super Bowl 54 odds update

Jets (+8.5) vs. Giants

There aren’t many bettors in the marketplace who are confident in backing the Jets, evidenced by a quick move to +2.5 from a pick ’em opener. The fact that the market seems to be bottoming out on the Jets ahead of their Sunday matchup against the Giants indicates it may be time to buy QB Sam Darnold and his team.

The New York teams square off at MetLife Stadium, where the Jets are technically the home team. My numbers make this game Giants -1, and although there is not enough value on either side on the point spread, one can make the case that teasing the Jets up to +8.5 in a game with a total of 43 is a +EV move.

Lions (+8.5) at Bears

Chicago is a 2.5-point home favorite against Detroit on Sunday in a battle between teams on disappointing runs. The Bears have lost four straight, and it is difficult to envision a stagnant offense suddenly figuring things out in Week 10.

On the other side of the ball, QB Matthew Stafford is enjoying a renaissance with the Lions offense following a season-ending injury to RB Kerryon Johnson two weeks ago. Detroit has moved to more of a pass-first scheme in recent weeks and has found success doing so, albeit against two subpar secondaries in the Giants and Raiders. It won’t be as easy for Stafford to keep up the momentum against a stout Chicago defense, but in a game with a low total of 41.5, the Lions simply need to stay within a touchdown for bettors to cash the Detroit leg of a two-teamer.

MORE: Lions vs. Bears betting primer

Teaser of the week: Bills +8.5 and Lions +8.5

Teaser of the week record: 2-4

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