Kansas City is a 10.5-point home favorite against Oakland in Week 13 of the NFL season, highlighting a three-game late Sunday slate.
It is no secret that the Chiefs’ Andy Reid has a prominent record against the spread coming off a bye week dating back to his days as the head coach of the Eagles, but not many talk about some of the eye-popping UNDER trends in those games.
The Rams and Chargers are both laying 3 points on the road to round out Sunday’s other two late-afternoon games. Here are odds, trends and key betting information for each.
Also read: NFL early Sunday slate odds, betting primer
Raiders at Chiefs (-10.5, 51)
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET/3:25 p.m. CT (CBS)
Opening spread/total: Chiefs -9/51.5
Betting records: Raiders 6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS; Chiefs 7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS
Notable trend: The total has gone UNDER in six of the last eight matchups between these two teams.
Quick analysis: Everyone and their uncle knows about Chiefs coach Andy Reid’s record off the bye week. Dating back to his time in Philadelphia, his teams are a combined 22-7 SU and 18-11 ATS with an extra week to prepare. But diving deeper into those trends reveals that the UNDER is an even stronger play for bettors when Reid’s team has an extended break.
Courtesy of R.J. Bell, when Reid was with Philadelphia, the Eagles were 17-4 SU and 14-7 ATS off the bye. With the Chiefs, his teams are 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS in that spot, which suggests that the marketplace may have caught up by modifying the pricing accordingly. But the market may not have properly adjusted the totals in these situations yet.
Coming off the bye, Reid’s teams went 17-4 to the UNDER with the Eagles (81%). When the Chiefs have had extra time to prepare with the veteran 61-year-old coach at the helm, the UNDER is 6-1-1. In total, in the very next game off their bye week, Reid’s teams are on a 23-5-1 run to the UNDER.
The winds are supposed to be howling in Kansas City on Sunday, with consistent gusts of 22+ MPH expected at Arrowhead Stadium. The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Oakland’s last 18 games against divisional opponents, and Raiders coach Jon Gruden likely spent extra time focusing on defense after his team surrendered 34 points to the Jets last week.
With a fortnight to get healthy before Sunday’s battle, the Chiefs defense is also improving with each passing week, moving into the top half of the league in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) for total defense at No. 14. Kansas City is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games against AFC West foes.
Pick: UNDER at 51 or better
Rams (-3, 47.5) at Cardinals
Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET/3:05 p.m. CT (FOX)
Opening spread/total: Rams -4/46.5
Betting records: Rams 6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS; Cardinals 3-7-1 SU, 7-3-1 ATS
Notable trend: The Rams are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams.
Quick analysis: The Cardinals enter this game off their bye and face a Rams team that may still be shell-shocked from their 45-6 Monday night drubbing at the hands of the Ravens. Not only does Arizona bring the rest advantage into this game, but they also may be catching the Rams in a major letdown spot following a clear changing of the guard in the NFC West. The marketplace has acted accordingly, driving the Rams down to -3 with some added juice at the time of this Saturday publication.
The Cardinals are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games, but the Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last seven on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in five of the Rams’ last six games, but OVER bettors have cashed in five of the Cardinals’ last seven games and in four of their last five at home.
NFL Week 13 sportsbook report: Money on 49ers in possible Super Bowl matchup vs. Ravens
Chargers (-3, 38.5) at Broncos
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET/3:25 p.m. CT (CBS)
Opening spread/total: Chargers -2.5/38.5
Betting records: Chargers 4-7 SU, 3-6-2 ATS; Broncos 3-8 SU, 6-5 ATS Notable trend: The UNDER is 14-2 in the Broncos’ last 16 games against conference opponents.
Quick analysis: The spread has lengthened on the Chargers amid news that rookie Drew Lock will start under center for the Broncos. The Chargers have lost five straight games ATS against AFC opponents and are 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests.
Denver is 13-4 SU against L.A. in the last 17 meetings between these two teams. The Chargers continue to outperform market expectations on the road, going 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games away from home.
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Chargers’ last 14 AFC West contests. UNDER bettors have cashed in eight of L.A.’s last 10 overall and in 10 of Denver’s last 12 home games.
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