The betting market is losing confidence in the Colts.
For their Week 14 trip to Tampa Bay, the Colts opened as 1.5-point underdogs at the Westgate SuperBook, a point spread that looked cheap to early-to-the-window wiseguys, who bet the line up to Bucs -3.5 on Sunday night. The hook encouraged buyback on Indianapolis, and as of Monday morning, the number sat at a field goal at most sportsbooks, some tacking additional juice onto the favorite.
The market also moved against the Colts ahead of their Week 13 home game vs. division rival Tennessee, and it turned out to be right. Indianapolis opened a three-point favorite, but money on the original underdog flipped the line in favor of the Titans, who kicked off 1-point favorites and went on to a 31-17 road victory.
(From the ‘bad beat’ or ‘fortunate win’ file, depending on which side of the bet you were on: While the Titans already had the game and cover in hand, a 40-yard touchdown pass from Ryan Tannehill to Kalif Raymond put the game OVER the 42-point total with three minutes left to play).
Also read: Week 13 betting recap
After a promising (and profitable) start, the Colts’ season is in danger of slipping away. They’ve dropped four of their last five, and at 6-6 straight up, are now in third place in the AFC South. Once 4-1-1 against the spread, Indy is now 6-5-1 ATS, still profitable but just barely.
The Bucs, meanwhile, have been a sharp play for much of the season but have just recently started to pay off at the betting window. Their 28-11 victory as 3-point favorites at Jacksonville on Sunday was their second straight blowout win on the road. While the Bucs are just 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS on the season, the betting market rates them higher than the Colts, according to the early line.
Next Sunday’s total opened 50.5 and has been bet down to 49.5, the highest number on the Week 14 oddsboard. Sunday’s game in Jacksonville broke a nine-game OVER streak for Tampa Bay, and at 9-3 O/U on the season, the Bucs have been the best OVER bet in the NFL.
The week’s slate begins across the state boarder, where the Bears are 3-point home underdogs to the Cowboys on Thursday night. Both teams are in midst of disappointing seasons, although Dallas is much better positioned for the playoffs, leading the weak NFC East.
The card is dotted with matchups between playoff contenders. Here are some highlights:
— The Ravens are 5.5-point favorites at Buffalo. During advanced wagering at the Westgate last week, Baltimore opened -7, but money on the Bills pushed the line down to -6.5.
— The Saints are field-goal favorites (plus extra vig), as they welcome a 49ers team playing its second straight tough road game. San Fran lost in Baltimore 20-17 on Sunday but cashed as a 5.5-point dog.
— New England, coming off its second loss of the season – 28-22 in Houston on Sunday night – is laying between 3 and 3.5 as they welcome the Chiefs to its friendly Foxborough confines.
Here are early point spreads and totals for entire Week 14 card, per consensus numbers Monday morning.
NFL Week 14 betting lines
Thursday, December 5
Cowboys (-3, 43) at Bears
Sunday, December 8
Ravens (-5.5, 43.5) at Bills
Redskins at Packers (-13.5, 42.5)
Broncos at Texans (-8, 41)
49ers at Saints (-3/-120, 45)
Bengals at Browns (-8.5, 42.5)
Panthers at Falcons (-2, 48)
Lions at Vikings (-14, 42.5)
Dolphins at Jets (-6, 44)
Colts at Bucs (-3, 49.5)
Chargers (3 even, 43) at Jaguars
Chiefs at Patriots (-3/-120, 48.5)
Steelers (-1.5, 43.5) at Cardinals
Titans (-3, 47)at Raiders
Seahawks (-2.5, 47) at Rams
Monday, December 9
Giants at Eagles (-8.5, 47)