The Irish, still in contention for a 10-win season and a New Year’s Six bowl invite after a close call Saturday, is road chalk at Duke on Saturday.
Purdue, meanwhile, is a rare road favorite at Northwestern, last winning at Ryan Field in 2010.
In Big Ten action, oddsmakers opened No. 3 Ohio State 44-point chalk over Maryland, the Buckeyes largest B1G spread in recent history.
Here is a look at Week 11 opening lines for Indiana FBS football programs, as well as all the Big Ten matchups.
Odds courtesy of Circa Sports
Indiana FBS programs
No. 15 Notre Dame (-7, 52) at Duke
Notre Dame, a 7-point favorite at Duke in Week 11, orchestrated a miraculous 18-play, 87-yard drive in the final minutes of regulation on Saturday to eke out a 21-20 come-from-behind win over Virginia Tech, barely surviving as a 17.5-point chalk.
The Blue Devils might be the last opponent head coach Brian Kelly wants to see after Saturday’s scare. Why? They were the last opponents to shock the program catching double digits on the oddsboard. Duke stunned then-No. 16 Notre Dame 38-35 as a 19-point pup in Week 4 of the 2016 season. Current Giants QB Daniel Jones led the Blue Devils in an evenly contested battle, the victory capped off by a 19-yard field goal with 1:24 remaining in the fourth quarter.
Kelly is not particularly good at motivating the Irish on the road following an ATS loss in South Bend, going 6-11 SU and 7-10 ATS all-time in this situation. This includes failing to cover six of nine as the betting favorite.
Duke has won just five of 27 matchups against ranked opponents in the David Cutcliffe-era, going 12-15 ATS. The UNDER is 17-9-1 under these conditions, the bet cashing in seven straight games.
Purdue (-1.5, 45) at Northwestern
Purdue is a 1.5-point road favorite at Northwestern. The Wildcats are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, the typically formidable Pat Fitzgerald defense holding Purdue to a 19.0 scoring average.
The Boilermakers, in fact, have come up short of market point projections in six of the contests. This might help explain why the total dropped from 45 to 43.5 after 10 minutes on the oddsboard.
Ball State at Western Michigan (-8, 63)
Early action for this rare Tuesday night kick off is going in Ball State’s favor, the spread dropping from a -8 opener to -7 in support of Western Michigan. The Broncos have won and covered the spread in all three contests hosting MAC rivals in 2019. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have won and topped the number in a pair of conference road games this season.
Big Ten matchups
Maryland at No. 3 Ohio State (-44, 65.5)
The 44-point spread is the highest in modern history for Ohio State against a Big Ten opponent. The Buckeyes lay 40 points to Northwestern in 1981, and were -39.5 favorites hosting Illinois in 1997 in their next largest oddsboard gaps.
The Terps are 0-12 SU and 3-9 ATS in road B1G contests against ranked opponents since joining the conference, losing by 27.9 points per game. Generating any kind of offense is the issue with a 10.7 scoring average.
No. 5 Penn State (-6.5, 48.5) at No. 13 Minnesota
Penn State is a 6.5-point favorite at Minnesota. Upsets are rare in recent Big Ten ranked clashes. Betting favorites are 17-1 SU and 14-3-1 ATS in the last 18 matchups, covering a 9.0 spread by 6.7 points.
Illinois at Michigan State (-13.5, 45.5)
Michigan State, laying 13.5 points to Illinois, is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games hosting unranked opponents at Spartan Stadium.
No. 18 Iowa at No. 16 Wisconsin (-8, 38)
Wisconsin was pegged 2.5-point chalk in Game of the Year Lines at Golden Nugget back in May. The odds moved from -8 to -10 in favor of the Badgers in early action Sunday.
The Hawkeyes have dropped six of the last seven in the series, going 2-5 ATS overall.
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