There’s been a mild response from the betting market to the Patriots’ move to sign Cam Newton to a one-year contract, with bookmakers making slight adjustments to New England’s futures odds.
Newton represents an upgrade at quarterback from either Jarrett Stidham or Brian Hoyer, but the former NFL MVP doesn’t elevate the Patriots to nearly the level at which the market had them rated throughout the Tom Brady era.
While New England’s odds to win the AFC have been tightened, Bill Belichick’s squad is tied with the Bills as just the fifth best team in the conference, per updated futures numbers at SuperBook USA. While Buffalo was the chalk to win the AFC East before the Pats’ acquisition of Newton , the teams are now co-favorites to finish atop the division.
The Chiefs (2/1 odds to win AFC) and Ravens (5/2) remain at the top of the conference betting board, followed by the Colts (10/1) and Steelers (12/1).
The Patriots have been adjusted from 40/1 odds to 30/1 at SuperBook to win Super Bowl 55, and from 25/1 to 20/1 at Caesars (h/t VSiN).
Here are some other market adjustments on Patriots betting numbers, per the SuperBook unless otherwise indicated:
Current 2020 season win total: 9 (under -120)
Adjusted from: 8.5 (over -125)
FanDuel moved the Pats’ win total from 9 to 9.5 (over -120).
Current odds to make playoffs: Yes -190, No +170
Adjusted from: Yes -160, No +140
Currents odds to win AFC East: Pats +130, Bills +130
Adjusted from: Pats +150, Bills +120
Point spreads for Patriots game have remain largely unchanged at the SuperBook. New England, for example, is still a 3.5-point underdog at Seattle in Week 2 and a 4.5-point favorite at home vs. the Raiders in Week 4.
While bettors who got in early on the Pats’ futures should feel good about their wagers, those looking to jump aboard now should be aware the offense Newton is inheriting is not exactly loaded with weapons. Then again, New England had the top-rated DVOA defense last season, per Football Outsiders, fading Belichick has rarely been a profitable wagering strategy.