PGA Tour betting odds, key stats, pick: Rory McIlroy favored over star-studded field at Farmers Insurance Open

Tiger Woods, Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama (AP Photo/Lee Jin-man)
Tiger Woods, Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama (AP Photo/Lee Jin-man)
Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

Tiger Woods is back on the golf course for his first event of the 2020 calendar year, the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines.

Woods is listed at 12/1 odds to earn the win, which would break Sam Snead’s record for most career victories in PGA Tour history with 83. But unlike Woods’ last win at the Zozo Championship in October, a full cast of golf stars stands in his way, including Jon Rahm (9/1), Rickie Fowler (20/1), Justin Rose (16/1) and tournament-favorite Rory McIlroy (7/1).

Woods has won the Farmers Insurance Open seven times in his 18 starts. Five other times, he’s finished in the top 10, but he hasn’t been great there of late, finishing T80, withdraw, missed cut, T23 and T20 in his past five starts at the event, which is played on both the South Course and North Course at Torrey Pines.

MORE: Woods’ odds to win a major adjusted ahead of Farmers Open

The first two rounds of the tournament is held on both courses, with the final 36 holes after the cut (top 65 and ties) played on the much longer South Course. In fact, the South Course is the longest layout golfers will see all season in a non-major, making driving metrics, ball-striking and par-5 scoring important stats to target this week.

Other key metrics for handicappers to keep in mind are Strokes Gained: Approach and Around the Green, as players need their scrambling skills to be on point since the fairways are difficult to hit consistently. Both courses feature fast greens, but the North Course is Bentgrass vs. Poa Annua for the South.

Another handicapping wrench is that the South Course recently underwent renovations to prepare for the 2021 U.S. Open. Among the biggest changes, per the San Diego Union-Tribune: Numerous fairway bunkers were placed about 300 yards from tees, fairways were pinched, and holes lengthened (think the Black Course at Bethpage Black).

“They’re kind of seemingly taking away the easy holes and turning them into moderate holes,” Beau Hossler told the Union-Tribune. “So, basically, there are no easy holes out here when you play it all the way back.”

The added difficulty has the Westgate SuperBook installing a 16.5-under par winning score prop. Last season, Justin Rose (-21) beat Adam Scott (-19) and Hideki Matsuyama (-16). Previous winners include: Jason Day (2018; -10), Rahm (2017; -13), Brandt Snedeker (2016; -6), Day (2015; -9) and Scott Stallings (2014; -9).

Ten of the past 14 winners have finished the season inside the top 30 in Driving Distance, per golf analyst Pat Mayo. And nine of the past 11 winners have posted a top 10 at this event prior to winning.

Farmers Insurance Open betting pick

Tony Finau fits the trends, but we are fading him in a betting matchup with Gary Woodland. While both are power-hitters, Woodland (-111 vs. Finau on some oddsboards) gets the nod with better metrics in Strokes Gained: Approach (from 200+), Strokes Gained: Putting on Poa and Bogey Avoidance, per Fantasy National.

Here are the Westgate’s Farmers Insurance Open outright odds for golfers listed at 300/1 or shorter, followed by head-to-head betting matchups.

Farmers Insurance Open odds

Odds provided by SuperBook

Rory McILROY 7/1
Jon RAHM 9/1
Tiger WOODS 12/1
Xander SCHAUFFELE 16/1
Justin ROSE 16/1
Hideki MATSUYAMA 20/1
Rickie FOWLER 20/1
Gary WOODLAND 25/1
Patrick REED 30/1
Tony FINAU 25/1
Collin MORIKAWA 30/1
Sungjae IM 30/1
Jason DAY 40/1
Brandt SNEDEKER 40/1
Scottie SCHEFFLER 40/1
Cameron SMITH 40/1
Jordan SPIETH 50/1
Marc LEISHMAN 50/1
Joaquin NIEMANN 40/1
Matthew WOLFF 60/1
Billy HORSCHEL 60/1
Ryan PALMER 50/1
Francesco MOLINARI 80/1
Byeong Hun AN 80/1
Keegan BRADLEY 80/1
Cameron CHAMP 60/1
Bud CAULEY 80/1
Russell KNOX 80/1
Lanto GRIFFIN 60/1
Jason KOKRAK 80/1
Emiliano GRILLO 80/1
Phil MICKELSON 100/1
Bubba WATSON 100/1
Lucas GLOVER 100/1
Rory SABBATINI 100/1
Harris ENGLISH 100/1
Joel DAHMEN 100/1
Sebastian MUNOZ 100/1
Brendan STEELE 300/1
Denny McCARTHY 100/1
Dylan FRITTELLI 125/1
Sepp STRAKA 125/1
Pat PEREZ 125/1
Talor GOOCH 125/1
Carlos ORTIZ 125/1
Matt JONES 125/1
J.B. HOLMES 150/1
Cameron TRINGALE 150/1
Nick WATNEY 150/1
Danny LEE 150/1
Sam BURNS 150/1
Kyle STANLEY 150/1
Cameron DAVIS 150/1
Sam RYDER 150/1
Tom HOGE 150/1
Jhonattan VEGAS 150/1
Beau HOSSLER 200/1
Maverick McNEALY 200/1
Wyndham CLARK 200/1
Harold VARNER III 200/1
Matthew NeSMITH 200/1
Scott STALLINGS 200/1
Austin COOK 200/1
Sung KANG 200/1
Jimmy WALKER 200/1
Kevin STREELMAN 200/1
Charley HOFFMAN 200/1
Bronson BURGOON 200/1
Kevin TWAY 200/1
Keith MITCHELL 200/1
C.T. PAN 200/1
Henrik NORLANDER 200/1
Grayson MURRAY 200/1
Michael THOMPSON 200/1
Luke LIST 250/1
Max HOMA 250/1
Jason DUFNER 250/1
Peter UIHLEIN 250/1
Bill HAAS 250/1

Notable matchup odds

Rory McILROY -130
Jon RAHM +110

Tiger WOODS -120

Hideki MATSUYAMA -120

Gary WOODLAND -120

Sungjae IM EVEN
Collin MORIKAWA -120

Jason DAY -140
Jordan SPIETH +120

MORE: Golf betting news and analysis