Double-digit point spread entices underdog bettors as Oklahoma State welcomes Sooners in Bedlam Series

Oklahoma State QB Dru Brown, November 2019
Oklahoma State QB Dru Brown (AP Photo/Chris Jackson)
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Oklahoma State is a perfect 6-0 against the spread when spotted double digits hosting the Sooners at Boone Pickens Stadium. While that trend dates back 35 years, the Cowboys are in that position again Saturday when they welcome Oklahoma for the 2019 edition of Bedlam.

No. 9 Oklahoma (-13, 69.5) at No. 21 Oklahoma State

Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. CT (FOX)

Line movement: Oklahoma opened a 14.5-point favorite on Sunday, the line sliding down to -12 within five hours of trading. The number rebounded to -13.5 on Tuesday and has toggled between that and -12.5 since, the market reluctant to push the spread back up to -14 as of Friday.

The total is trending downwards, trading at 69 or 69.5 following a 73.5 initial offer.

Oddsmakers listed the Sooners as 10-point chalk in Games of the Year lines in May.

Cowboys’ double-digit delight: Oklahoma (10-1 SU, 4-7 ATS) dominates Oklahoma State (8-3 SU, 8-2-1 ATS) in Bedlam Series football clashes in recent decades, winning 31 of 39 meetings since 1980. On average, the Sooners kick off 12.3-point favorites in this span.

The Cowboys have proven a profitable bet, however, when gifted double digits on the oddsboard at home against their rival, per the above mentioned trend. Although Oklahoma State has sprung only one outright upset under these market conditions, a 38-28 victory as 15-point pups in 2002, it wallops the betting number (+17.8) by a 13.6 average margin.

CFP odds update: Ohio State clear favorite

Boone Pickens fireworks: Since 2006, the OVER is 22-7-2 (75.9%) when a ranked opponent takes on Oklahoma State at Boone Pickens Stadium. The wager improves to 15-2 (88.2%) when the total is north of 65.5 points. The winner of each game under the latter conditions has put up at least 41 points every time.

Sooners offense sputtering: Oklahoma has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven games, in large part due to a sputtering offense. Since Week 7, the team is posting 38.5 points per game; head coach Lincoln Riley averaged 47.8 points in his career prior. The Sooners’ 28-24 win as 17.5-point chalk over TCU last Saturday tied for the lowest-scoring output in Riley’s tenure, failing to reach market projections by 12.2 points.

Sooners pass defense letdown: The Sooners limited TCU to 3.1 yards per pass in their Week 13 win, the most efficient performance against the throw in Riley’s tenure. Stringing two effective outings together has proven a tough achievement in this span, foes often lighting up the scoreboard in follow-up efforts. Ten of 13 opponents have surpassed market projections in scoring, and by an 8.0 average margin, when the Sooners defense yields fewer than 6.5 yards per pass in their previous game. Oklahoma is surrendering 31.4 points per contest in this scenario.

Notable trends

The OVER is 21-9-1 in Oklahoma’s last 31 road games versus a team with a winning home record.

The Cowboys are 4-1 SU and ATS in Stillwater this season.

The OVER is 78-37-2 (67.8%) in Oklahoma State’s last 117 home games.

Trends compiled with queries performed at SportsDatabase.

MORE: College football betting