Sunday Big Ten basketball odds and picks: Total on the move in Michigan State-Purdue clash

Trevion Williams, Purdue basketball, January 2020
Trevion Williams and Purdue are rare home underdogs hosting Michigan State on Sunday. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

Streaking No. 8 Michigan State is laying points to Purdue at Mackey Arena for the first time since 2014, but early betting action is hitting the total hard in a game which Boilermakers rim-protector Matt Haarms could see limited action due to a hip injury sustained last time out.

In other action, Minnesota opened a rare 2-point favorite hosting No. 19 Michigan at Williams Arena. The Wolverines tipped off chalk in nine of the last 10 meetings.

Betting previews and pick for each below.

No. 8 Michigan State (-3, 135.5) at Purdue

Tip: noon ET / 11 a.m. CT (CBS)

Betting primer: Oddsmakers opened Michigan State (13-3 straight up, 8-8 against the spread) a 2-point favorite, the line jumping to -3 within the first hour on the board. The total is seeing even greater adjustment, ballooning to 135.5 as of Saturday night’s publication following a 132 initial offer.

Since 2014, Purdue (9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS) has not lost more than one conference game at Mackey Arena in any season. The program is 28-18-2 ATS (60.9%) in its last 58 games defending their home hardwood against Big Ten rivals.

Head coach Matt Painter and crew came close to their first B1G defeat in the current campaign last time out in the building, surviving in an 83-78 overtime win against Minnesota on January 2. The Boilermakers tipped off 8-point chalk. The unranked Gophers entered with just three away conference wins in their last 23 attempts.

The Boilermakers have since dropped two straight road games (1-0-1 ATS) at Minnesota (63-37) and Michigan (84-78). The offense is inconsistent with a glut of shooters graduating last season, including Carsen Edwards.

Four players average double figures in points for Painter, but none more than 11.1 per game (F Trevion Williams). In that list is center Matt Haarms, who was knocked out in the first half of the Michigan defeat with a hip injury. His status is “good to go” as of Saturday night, but whether he gets a full run-out is unknown. The 7-foot-3 center averages 23.7 minutes per game (10.7 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.0 blk.) and is also the primary rim-protecter in a new and improved defense.

Sparty enters winners of five straight games, covering them by a 12.1 average margin (-15.9 avg. line). This includes three bouts against Big Ten competition (Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota). During the streak, Michigan State is shooting an eye-opening 51.6% from the floor, while holding opponents to 32.6%.

This meeting will be just the fourth time Tom Izzo’s program has tipped off chalk at Purdue since 2009. It is undefeated and 3-0 ATS in the prior three contests, covering a -4.8 average line by a 9.2 margin.

The OVER has also cashed in each of the aforementioned games as well, and by an even greater 19.5 average margin, Sparty shooting 52.4% from the field. Expect the offense to keep rolling, particularly if Haarms sits.

Pick: OVER 135.5

NCAA Tournament odds update: Field is wide open

No. 19 Michigan at Minnesota (-2, 140.5)

Tip: 1 p.m. ET / noon CT (BTN)

Betting primer: The UNDER is 19-6 (76%) in the last 25 meetings between Minnesota (8-7 SU, 9-5-1 ATS) and Michigan (11-4 SU, 8-6-1 ATS) including the last six in a row. The Gophers have failed to reach their projected team total in each of the latter contests by an average -12.1 margin. They are posting 55.0 points per game on a lowly 34.5% shooting.

Despite the trend, the total is moving north in the other direction. Oddsmakers opened the number at 139, bet up to 141 at some outlets within the first hours of trading.

Why the early adjustment? For one, the Gophers are a different animal at Williams Arena offensively, posting 80.1 points per game. Their ability to spread the court and pass for an open look is elite, ranking seventh in the country with 53.2% of assisted 2-point jumpers. It’s a hallmark of a Richard Pitino-coached team, which has helped fuel a 12-5 OVER run at home against Big Ten competition in the last calendar year.

Minnesota opened as a 2-point favorite on the point spread. If the line holds, it will be just the second time tipping off as chalk in the last 11 meetings.

The Wolverines have dropped their last four ATS when catching points, including three this season at Louisville, Illinois, and Michigan State. They are averaging 35.0% from the floor in these contests.

Pick: Minnesota -2

This story was compiled with the help of queries performed at SportsDatabase.

Bookmark us: College basketball betting