The Cowboys and NFC North visitors combine for 57.3 points per game at AT&T Stadium in the Jason Garrett era. That would be enough to get Sunday night’s game in Dallas OVER the total, which has hovered between 47.5 and 48 on oddsboards during early betting action.
Vikings at Cowboys (-3, 47.5)
Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET / 7:20 p.m. CT (NBC)
Line movement: Dallas opened a 3-point favorite, the line holding steady for most of the week outside a pair of quick adjustments to -2.5 and subsequent returns on Monday.
An initial offer of 47 for the total shot up to 48 points by Tuesday morning before retreating down to 47.5 at most bet shops.
Dallas non-divisional matchups problematic
After a slow start, the Cowboys came back to rout the Giants 37-18 on Monday as 7-point chalk. The victory moved quarterback Dak Prescott to 17-4 SU and 16-5 ATS (76.2%) all-time against NFC East rivals when playing for more than two series in a contest.
Non-divisional matchups have proven problematic lately. Dallas has dropped four of its last five dating back to last year’s 30-22 defeat to the Rams in the NFC Divisional Playoffs, including its last three, each as the betting favorite.
Prescott and the Cowboys (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) go from a super team to a pedestrian one when playing tougher competition. When attempting at least 10 passes in a contest, Prescott is 22-6 SU (78.6%) and 19-7-2 ATS (73.1%) facing teams with a negative scoring margin. Squaring off against opponents with a positive differential, Dallas slips to 14-12 SU (53.8%) and 11-14-1 ATS (44.0%) overall. The Vikings (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) enter with a +8.4 point differential, fifth highest in the NFL.
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Jerry World fireworks
The OVER is 10-1-1 when head coach Jason Garrett hosts an NFC North opponent at AT&T Stadium in his career. The margin is a whopping 9.8 points above a 47.5 average total. Dallas has put up 24 points or more in all but one of the 12 contests.
Vikings wins equate to road success
The Vikings snapped a four-game win streak in a 26-23 defeat against backup QB Matt Moore and the Chiefs last Sunday. Minny, which entered the contest with six wins to five for Kansas City, kicked off anywhere from a 4.5- to 5.5-point favorite depending on the shop.
Despite the loss, the Vikings are 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10 road games when owning more wins than their opponents. This trend dates back to November 2016, Minnesota kicking off a -3.1 average favorite. The Cowboys, who total five wins in 2019, are just the second team to go off the betting favorite in this situation. Zimmer topped the Falcons 14-9 catching 2 points on the board in a Week 13 clash in 2017.
Hot teams handle Vikes at home
Zimmer is just 2-11 SU and 4-8-1 ATS (33.3%) all-time as a road underdog facing a team coming off a win. This includes a 21-16 defeat catching 3 points at the Packers in Week 2 and a 16-6 loss at Chicago in Week 4 gifted 2.5 on the board. The Minnesota offense stumbles to 16.4 points per game under these conditions.
Trends compiled with queries performed at SportsDatabase.
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