Waste Management Open betting odds, key stats, pick: Birdie-fest expected for rowdy crowd

TPC Scottsdale, January 2020
The 16th hole of the Waste Management Open golf tournament at TPC Scottsdale (AP Photo/John Marshall)
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No tournament on the PGA Tour schedule compares to this weekend’s Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. Appropriately called a “Happy Gilmore” event, over 500,000 rowdy fans attend and even heckle golf’s finest over four days.

Arizona State product Jon Rahm, who has never finished worse than T16 in four appearances, is the 7/1 favorite at the Westgate SuperBook. Looking for his third win of the 2019-20 season, Justin Thomas is 9/1, followed by Webb Simpson (14/1), defending champion Rickie Fowler (16/1) and two-time winner Hideki Matsuyama (16/1).

A ball-striker’s course, TPC Scottsdale features reachable par-5s and larger-than-average greens. While the winning-score prop is set at -18.5 with perfect weather expected, the final four holes each round will make or break golfers’ days. No. 15 is a reachable par-5, but water surrounds the green and players can begin to hear the roars from the par-3 16th. The stadium-style seating makes No. 16 unlike any other hole in golf. And while fans are ready to erupt at the sight of a hole-in-one, only nine aces have occurred at the event since 1987. A pair of par-4s protected by water await players to finish each round.

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The course

TPC Scottsdale
Par-71, 7,261 yards
Difficulty: No. 24 of 48 in 2019; 32nd, 33rd, and 20th from 2016-18.
Larger-than-average greens Bermuda greens
Cut rule: The top 65 and ties move on after the opening two rounds.
Winner receives 500 FedExCup points

Key stats

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Par 4s Gained: 450-500 Yards
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Putting (focus on Bermuda)

Recent winners

2019: Rickie Fowler -17; runner-up: Branden Grace
2018: Gary Woodland -18; runner-up: Chez Reavie
2017: Hideki Matsuyama -17; runner-up: Webb Simpson
2016: Hideki Matsuyama -14; runner-up: Rickie Fowler
2015: Brooks Koepka -15; runner-up: Hideki Matsuyama, Ryan Palmer, Bubba Watson
2014: Kevin Stadler -16; runner-up: Graham DeLaet, Bubba Watson

Waste Management Open betting pick

Corey Conners to finish in the top 20 (+230)

Conners is riding a streak of six top-20 finishes dating back to the Safeway Open at Silverado in September, a course with a similar skill set needed to be successful as TPC Scottsdale. The ball-striking course sets up perfectly for Conners, who finished the 2019 season tied for third in the stat and is 11th on Tour this season in Greens in Regulation percentage.

2020 Waste Management Open odds

Outright odds provided by SuperBook; Golfers listed 200/1 or shorter

Jon RAHM 7/1
Justin THOMAS 9/1
Webb SIMPSON 14/1
Hideki MATSUYAMA 16/1
Rickie FOWLER 16/1
Xander SCHAUFFELE 18/1
Matt KUCHAR 30/1
Gary WOODLAND 30/1
Tony FINAU 30/1
Bryson DeCHAMBEAU 30/1
Collin MORIKAWA 30/1
Sungjae IM 30/1
Bubba WATSON 30/1
Brandt SNEDEKER 40/1
Viktor HOVLAND 40/1
Branden GRACE 40/1
Jordan SPIETH 50/1
Scottie SCHEFFLER 50/1
Cameron SMITH 50/1
Ryan PALMER 50/1
Ryan MOORE 60/1
Matthew WOLFF 60/1
J.T. POSTON 60/1
Chez REAVIE 60/1
Byeong Hun AN 60/1
Corey CONNERS 60/1
Jason KOKRAK 80/1
Andrew PUTNAM 80/1
Keegan BRADLEY 80/1
Daniel BERGER 80/1
Russell KNOX 80/1
Billy HORSCHEL 80/1
Brian HARMAN 80/1
Kevin NA 100/1
Emiliano GRILLO 100/1
Bud CAULEY 100/1
Adam HADWIN 100/1
Brendan STEELE 100/1
Tom HOGE 100/1
Charley HOFFMAN 100/1
Harris ENGLISH 100/1
Zach JOHNSON 100/1
Vaughn TAYLOR 100/1
J.B. HOLMES 100/1
Rory SABBATINI 125/1
Lanto GRIFFIN 125/1
Denny McCARTHY 125/1
Andrew LANDRY 125/1
Beau HOSSLER 125/1
Joel DAHMEN 125/1
Sebastian MUNOZ 150/1
Sung KANG 150/1
Scott PIERCY 150/1
Dylan FRITTELLI 150/1
Aaron WISE 150/1
Sean O’HAIR 150/1
Sepp STRAKA 150/1
Martin LAIRD 125/1
Max HOMA 100/1
Patrick RODGERS 150/1
Harry HIGGS 150/1
Talor GOOCH 150/1
Carlos ORTIZ 150/1
Russell HENLEY 150/1
Kevin STREELMAN 150/1
Matt JONES 150/1
Charl SCHWARTZEL 200/1
Kyle STANLEY 200/1
Danny LEE 200/1
Nick TAYLOR 200/1
Sebastian CAPPELEN 200/1
Harold VARNER III 200/1
Cameron TRINGALE 200/1
Jimmy WALKER 200/1
Luke LIST 200/1
Kiradech APHIBARNRAT 200/1
Sam RYDER 200/1
Kevin TWAY 200/1
Sam BURNS 200/1
Chesson HADLEY 200/1
Adam SCHENK 200/1
Brian STUARD 200/1
Adam LONG 200/1
Nate LASHLEY 200/1
Grayson MURRAY 200/1
Xinjun ZHANG 200/1

Notable matchups

Jon RAHM -125
Justin THOMAS +105

Rickie FOWLER +110
Hideki MATSUYAMA -130

Xander SCHAUFFELE -110
Webb SIMPSON -110

Matt KUCHAR +110
Gary WOODLAND -130

Sungjae IM -110
Collin MORIKAWA -110

Brandt SNEDEKER +105
Bubba WATSON -125

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